Omaha Nebraska Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
02/18/2026	65		33		42		19		32		18		35		14
02/17/2026	75	69.9	42	40.9	65		35		47		19		36		19
02/16/2026	67	64.3	47	43.5	76	69.9	44	40.9	63		33		46		20
02/15/2026	66	65.2	44	40.4	68	64.3	46	43.5	76	69.9	46	40.9	61		32
02/14/2026	60	60.8	36	31.1	65	65.2	42	40.4	65	64.3	45	43.5	73	69.9	44	40.9
02/13/2026	60	62.2	38	36.6	57	60.8	34	31.1	64	65.2	42	40.4	63	64.3	45	43.5
02/12/2026	58	57.6	29	23.7	58	62.2	37	36.6	59	60.8	33	31.1	61	65.2	40	40.4
02/11/2026	51	50.2	33	34.8	55	57.6	31	23.7	57	62.2	36	36.6	58	60.8	35	31.1
02/10/2026	49	47.0	27	19.1	51	50.2	33	34.8	53	57.6	29	23.7	52	62.2	35	36.6
02/09/2026	70	73.7	35	35.3	51	47.0	30	19.1	50	50.2	34	34.8	48	57.6	31	23.7
02/08/2026	57	57.1	33	30.1	68	73.7	35	35.3	51	47.0	30	19.1	50	50.2	33	34.8
02/07/2026	47	46.5	32	24.7	54	57.1	34	30.1	69	73.7	38	35.3	51	47.0	29	19.1
02/06/2026	46	49.1	23	23.6	45	46.5	33	24.7	55	57.1	35	30.1	66	73.7	37	35.3
02/05/2026	58	60.3	36	37.7	46	49.1	23	23.6	45	46.5	31	24.7	56	57.1	35	30.1
02/04/2026	37	34.4	24	26.6	54	60.3	36	37.7	48	49.1	23	23.6	50	46.5	31	24.7
02/03/2026	34	29.3	25	28.5	37	34.4	24	26.6	56	60.3	34	37.7	49	49.1	25	23.6
02/02/2026	39	43.6	25	26.7	34	29.3	24	28.5	37	34.4	24	26.6	53	60.3	33	37.7
02/01/2026	44	46.9	21	21.6	39	43.6	23	26.7	35	29.3	21	28.5	38	34.4	24	26.6
01/31/2026	21	22.1	15	16.5	44	46.9	20	21.6	40	43.6	22	26.7	36	29.3	19	28.5
01/30/2026	14	13.4	-2	-1.7	20	22.1	14	16.5	42	46.9	20	21.6	37	43.6	24	26.7
01/29/2026	23	23.1	9	7.7	15	13.4	-2	-1.7	21	22.1	12	16.5	39	46.9	20	21.6
01/28/2026	31	32.0	14	14.4	21	23.1	6	7.7	15	13.4	-3	-1.7	19	22.1	10	16.5
01/27/2026	24	24.3	9	13.4	30	32.0	12	14.4	22	23.1	3	7.7	15	13.4	-2	-1.7
01/26/2026	25	23.0	13	14.2	25	24.3	8	13.4	32	32.0	11	14.4	24	23.1	4	7.7
01/25/2026	15	14.7	-4	-5.3	25	23.0	13	14.2	27	24.3	9	13.4	31	32.0	9	14.4
01/24/2026	8	5.6	0	-5.1	18	14.7	-3	-5.3	24	23.0	14	14.2	30	24.3	10	13.4
01/23/2026	1	-0.7	-1	-1.7	8	5.6	0	-5.1	16	14.7	-4	-5.3	24	23.0	10	14.2
01/22/2026	33	30.4	-4	-8.1	3	-0.7	-4	-1.7	6	5.6	-2	-5.1	15	14.7	-2	-5.3
01/21/2026	43	45.1	15	14.6	32	30.4	-6	-8.1	3	-0.7	-4	-1.7	10	5.6	0	-5.1
01/20/2026	32	29.4	19	21.3	45	45.1	15	14.6	33	30.4	-3	-8.1	6	-0.7	-3	-1.7
01/19/2026	22	19.1	10	8.2	31	29.4	18	21.3	43	45.1	13	14.6	35	30.4	3	-8.1
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	0.3		1.0		-0.2		0.5		-0.3		0.2		-0.6		0.4
MAE	2.0		2.5		2.9		3.0		2.6		3.4		4.0		4.0
RMS	2.4		3.2		3.3		3.9		3.1		4.1		5.0		4.9
Goal %	83.3		66.7		55.2		65.5		64.3		50.0		37.0		40.7

Updated every day at 9:03AM CT

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6 AM - 6 PM (recorded at 6:02 PM); lows from 6 PM - 9 AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.

(Auto night: 7:02 PM - 6:14 AM)