Omaha Nebraska Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
09/03/2025	71	72.1	48		74		52		66		46		69		50
09/02/2025	75	78.4	60	62.1	71	72.1	46		71		53		66		46
09/01/2025	67	66.3	54	54.7	75	78.4	59	62.1	71	72.1	47		70		53
08/31/2025	69	69.2	62	62.8	68	66.3	57	54.7	75	78.4	59	62.1	71	72.1	46
08/30/2025	77	76.0	63	62.8	69	69.2	61	62.8	68	66.3	57	54.7	75	78.4	56	62.1
08/29/2025	82	81.9	63	62.2	76	76.0	63	62.8	71	69.2	61	62.8	71	66.3	58	54.7
08/28/2025	81	77.9	61	58.9	82	81.9	62	62.2	79	76.0	63	62.8	75	69.2	60	62.8
08/27/2025	80	79.2	59	56.5	80	77.9	61	58.9	81	81.9	62	62.2	78	76.0	60	62.8
08/26/2025	76	75.1	57	59.8	80	79.2	59	56.5	81	77.9	60	58.9	80	81.9	60	62.2
08/25/2025	72	73.2	53	52.5	76	75.1	57	59.8	79	79.2	57	56.5	80	77.9	58	58.9
08/24/2025	75	75.2	51	50.6	74	73.2	52	52.5	76	75.1	57	59.8	79	79.2	59	56.5
08/23/2025	76	75.7	54	56.5	75	75.2	52	50.6	72	73.2	50	52.5	76	75.1	55	59.8
08/22/2025	88	86.6	65	65.5	79	75.7	56	56.5	74	75.2	52	50.6	73	73.2	51	52.5
08/21/2025	86	87.3	66	66.8	88	86.6	65	65.5	79	75.7	54	56.5	75	75.2	52	50.6
08/20/2025	88	90.4	66	68.7	86	87.3	66	66.8	87	86.6	64	65.5	79	75.7	56	56.5
08/19/2025	89	90.9	69	70.1	87	90.4	67	68.7	87	87.3	68	66.8	88	86.6	61	65.5
08/18/2025	92	87.7	71	70.9	88	90.9	68	70.1	85	90.4	64	68.7	86	87.3	64	66.8
08/17/2025	95	92.9	74	70.7	92	87.7	71	70.9	89	90.9	66	70.1	85	90.4	63	68.7
08/16/2025	97	95.2	76	76.9	95	92.9	75	70.7	94	87.7	70	70.9	86	90.9	66	70.1
08/15/2025	93	92.2	75	78.0	98	95.2	77	76.9	95	92.9	74	70.7	93	87.7	71	70.9
08/14/2025	89	87.8	73	74.4	97	92.2	77	78.0	99	95.2	76	76.9	95	92.9	74	70.7
08/13/2025	87	85.4	67	70.7	88	87.8	71	74.4	93	92.2	74	78.0	94	95.2	74	76.9
08/12/2025	84	85.7	62	62.8	84	85.4	66	70.7	87	87.8	72	74.4	93	92.2	75	78.0
08/11/2025	81	79.7	64	64.6	83	85.7	62	62.8	84	85.4	66	70.7	88	87.8	72	74.4
08/10/2025	79	83.6	64	65.6	80	79.7	64	64.6	85	85.7	64	62.8	84	85.4	68	70.7
08/09/2025	86	83.7	69	68.0	81	83.6	64	65.6	82	79.7	64	64.6	86	85.7	66	62.8
08/08/2025	97	91.5	74	70.3	86	83.7	68	68.0	83	83.6	65	65.6	80	79.7	65	64.6
08/07/2025	93	85.1	75	74.6	97	91.5	74	70.3	87	83.7	68	68.0	83	83.6	65	65.6
08/06/2025	89	86.4	72	72.0	93	85.1	76	74.6	96	91.5	75	70.3	91	83.7	69	68.0
08/05/2025	85	82.4	67	67.3	89	86.4	72	72.0	93	85.1	75	74.6	95	91.5	73	70.3
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	0.8		-0.4		0.9		-0.3		0.9		-0.8		0.7		-1.2
MAE	2.0		1.4		2.2		1.6		2.3		2.0		2.3		2.6
RMS	2.6		1.8		2.8		2.1		3.0		2.5		3.1		3.0
Goal %	80.0		89.7		75.9		82.1		67.9		74.1		66.7		69.2

Updated every day at 9:03AM CT

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6 AM - 6 PM (recorded at 6:02 PM); lows from 6 PM - 9 AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.

(Auto night: 8:53 PM - 5:52 AM)