Omaha Nebraska Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
11/05/2025	57		38		63		45		65		39		54		24
11/04/2025	70	68.7	44	43.8	57		38		64		46		62		39
11/03/2025	62	62.3	43	42.6	70	68.7	44	43.8	60		40		66		46
11/02/2025	58	59.6	39	38.8	62	62.3	43	42.6	69	68.7	43	43.8	61		40
11/01/2025	46	48.5	31	29.9	59	59.6	40	38.8	61	62.3	42	42.6	66	68.7	44	43.8
10/31/2025	51	50.2	33	37.9	48	48.5	31	29.9	59	59.6	41	38.8	61	62.3	40	42.6
10/30/2025	57	57.9	37	35.5	51	50.2	32	37.9	49	48.5	32	29.9	59	59.6	40	38.8
10/29/2025	51	48.1	35	32.2	57	57.9	38	35.5	54	50.2	33	37.9	50	48.5	34	29.9
10/28/2025	51	51.5	42	42.9	51	48.1	36	32.2	56	57.9	37	35.5	51	50.2	32	37.9
10/27/2025	56	54.2	46	47.9	54	51.5	41	42.9	51	48.1	34	32.2	55	57.9	37	35.5
10/26/2025	59	65.2	49	51.5	57	54.2	45	47.9	54	51.5	39	42.9	51	48.1	37	32.2
10/25/2025	58	59.0	49	49.4	61	65.2	49	51.5	56	54.2	45	47.9	52	51.5	40	42.9
10/24/2025	58	57.0	48	50.5	58	59.0	49	49.4	58	65.2	48	51.5	57	54.2	45	47.9
10/23/2025	64	63.3	42	40.6	59	57.0	48	50.5	60	59.0	48	49.4	61	65.2	50	51.5
10/22/2025	64	63.9	37	34.7	63	63.3	40	40.6	60	57.0	48	50.5	61	59.0	50	49.4
10/21/2025	59	58.2	38	33.6	64	63.9	37	34.7	63	63.3	43	40.6	62	57.0	47	50.5
10/20/2025	66	64.7	45	45.7	59	58.2	36	33.6	64	63.9	38	34.7	66	63.3	46	40.6
10/19/2025	64	64.1	49	47.6	68	64.7	45	45.7	60	58.2	37	33.6	64	63.9	37	34.7
10/18/2025	71	66.9	42	41.0	64	64.1	49	47.6	68	64.7	44	45.7	60	58.2	39	33.6
10/17/2025	77	73.5	51	45.5	70	66.9	42	41.0	65	64.1	52	47.6	70	64.7	45	45.7
10/16/2025	82	81.6	63	62.1	76	73.5	51	45.5	71	66.9	42	41.0	66	64.1	49	47.6
10/15/2025	80	74.6	63	64.4	82	81.6	62	62.1	76	73.5	49	45.5	67	66.9	41	41.0
10/14/2025	63	63.6	60	58.6	81	74.6	63	64.4	80	81.6	62	62.1	77	73.5	51	45.5
10/13/2025	67	67.3	53	52.8	64	63.6	59	58.6	77	74.6	62	64.4	81	81.6	60	62.1
10/12/2025	85	85.7	55	49.6	68	67.3	53	52.8	63	63.6	56	58.6	73	74.6	61	64.4
10/11/2025	75	73.1	61	63.2	85	85.7	54	49.6	67	67.3	50	52.8	60	63.6	51	58.6
10/10/2025	78	75.7	49	49.1	74	73.1	61	63.2	84	85.7	51	49.6	65	67.3	46	52.8
10/09/2025	76	76.9	59	57.8	78	75.7	51	49.1	69	73.1	60	63.2	82	85.7	55	49.6
10/08/2025	69	69.1	54	55.8	72	76.9	57	57.8	80	75.7	54	49.1	75	73.1	62	63.2
10/07/2025	67	66.7	46	42.8	68	69.1	54	55.8	73	76.9	56	57.8	79	75.7	56	49.1
10/06/2025	57	53.8	46	45.6	67	66.7	45	42.8	68	69.1	53	55.8	74	76.9	55	57.8
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	0.5		0.5		0.7		0.2		0.4		-0.2		0.4		0.0
MAE	1.6		1.8		1.7		1.9		2.1		2.5		2.3		3.3
RMS	2.2		2.4		2.3		2.4		2.7		2.8		2.7		3.9
Goal %	83.3		83.3		82.8		86.2		75.0		67.9		74.1		55.6

Updated every day at 9:03AM CT

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6 AM - 6 PM (recorded at 6:02 PM); lows from 6 PM - 9 AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.

(Auto night: 6:16 PM - 5:59 AM)