Omaha Nebraska Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal:
+/- 3°F
Forecast Day+1 Day+2 Day+3 Day
HighLowHighLowHighLowHighLow
DateNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSAct
05/17/20269083.658774761426347
05/16/20268986.76261.69383.66285506343
05/15/20269590.86160.78986.76261.69383.6648952
05/14/20268481.55958.39490.86060.78886.76061.68983.665
05/13/20268179.15657.68481.55758.39190.85960.79186.76161.6
05/12/20268480.85149.58179.15557.68481.55958.39190.86160.7
05/11/20268583.76164.88480.85049.58279.15557.68781.56458.3
05/10/20267474.54947.48583.76164.88480.85349.58179.15557.6
05/09/20268276.44641.37474.54847.48483.76064.88680.85449.5
05/08/20267777.44943.38176.44841.37274.54747.48283.75864.8
05/07/20267272.44749.37677.44843.37976.44841.37174.54747.4
05/06/20266060.43740.67272.44849.37677.44943.37976.44841.3
05/05/20266158.94135.25960.43940.67172.44949.37477.44743.3
05/04/20268281.34745.96058.94135.25860.43940.66972.44449.3
05/03/20267375.44847.18181.34845.96058.94135.25860.43840.6
05/02/20266767.84950.87375.44647.18081.34745.95958.94135.2
05/01/20266058.43531.76967.84850.87675.44847.18081.34645.9
04/30/20266157.83737.15958.43531.76667.84650.87775.44747.1
04/29/20266262.84143.66057.83637.16058.43831.76667.84550.8
04/28/20265653.63937.36462.84343.66157.83737.16158.43831.7
04/27/20266361.04141.55553.63937.36262.84243.66457.83937.1
04/26/20266969.75659.76561.04141.55753.63737.36262.84143.6
04/25/20267268.65144.87169.75759.76561.04041.55953.63937.3
04/24/20266764.74444.06868.65144.87169.75559.76561.04141.5
04/23/20267780.34442.76764.74344.06468.64944.86469.74959.7
04/22/20268380.16164.27580.34642.76764.74244.06568.64944.8
04/21/20268587.35659.58380.16164.27880.34542.76564.74344.0
04/20/20267681.55455.58787.35659.58280.16164.28180.34542.7
04/19/20266362.63740.97681.55455.58487.35659.58380.16264.2
04/18/20265755.33535.36362.63840.97481.55455.58287.35759.5
04/17/20267073.03530.65755.33435.36862.64140.97581.55555.5
ErrorsNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSAct
Net1.00.21.00.10.60.00.30.0
MAE2.32.42.22.42.62.63.23.2
RMS2.83.03.02.93.33.33.74.2
Goal %74.260.076.769.069.060.750.059.3

Updated every day at 9:03AM CT

(data begins: 2024-10-22)
(minimum: start + 4 days)

NOTES:

  1. Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
  2. Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
  3. MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
  4. Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
  5. In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
  6. Highs are measured from 6 AM - 6 PM (recorded at 6:02 PM); lows from 6 PM - 9 AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
  7. Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Theme:

(Auto night: 9:49 PM - 4:52 AM)