Omaha Nebraska Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
07/18/2025	86	83.3	69		88		69		87		72		94		73
07/17/2025	77	76.0	63	67.0	85	83.3	70		90		69		90		71
07/16/2025	83	80.8	59	61.0	76	76.0	61	67.0	82	83.3	69		87		69
07/15/2025	92	89.8	67	65.6	84	80.8	60	61.0	74	76.0	61	67.0	83	83.3	69
07/14/2025	92	90.1	67	70.9	92	89.8	69	65.6	87	80.8	66	61.0	78	76.0	64	67.0
07/13/2025	88	84.9	65	67.5	92	90.1	68	70.9	91	89.8	69	65.6	86	80.8	63	61.0
07/12/2025	82	78.6	62	58.2	89	84.9	68	67.5	90	90.1	70	70.9	91	89.8	69	65.6
07/11/2025	84	78.7	66	66.6	82	78.6	62	58.2	89	84.9	69	67.5	92	90.1	72	70.9
07/10/2025	93	90.1	70	67.1	88	78.7	66	66.6	83	78.6	62	58.2	88	84.9	68	67.5
07/09/2025	89	88.8	69	67.5	91	90.1	71	67.1	85	78.7	62	66.6	82	78.6	63	58.2
07/08/2025	85	88.4	66	67.4	89	88.8	68	67.5	88	90.1	70	67.1	85	78.7	63	66.6
07/07/2025	85	87.4	67	64.2	84	88.4	65	67.4	88	88.8	68	67.5	89	90.1	68	67.1
07/06/2025	88	84.9	68	66.9	86	87.4	66	64.2	85	88.4	67	67.4	89	88.8	69	67.5
07/05/2025	89	89.3	67	70.3	86	84.9	67	66.9	87	87.4	68	64.2	86	88.4	67	67.4
07/04/2025	91	89.0	72	72.8	88	89.3	68	70.3	86	84.9	65	66.9	88	87.4	67	64.2
07/03/2025	94	91.6	72	72.6	90	89.0	72	72.8	87	89.3	66	70.3	86	84.9	66	66.9
07/02/2025	91	88.0	70	73.1	94	91.6	72	72.6	91	89.0	72	72.8	89	89.3	67	70.3
07/01/2025	87	87.0	65	67.6	92	88.0	71	73.1	92	91.6	72	72.6	91	89.0	73	72.8
06/30/2025	83	86.0	61	61.5	87	87.0	65	67.6	90	88.0	71	73.1	93	91.6	74	72.6
06/29/2025	90	85.9	67	70.7	85	86.0	62	61.5	88	87.0	67	67.6	92	88.0	69	73.1
06/28/2025	93	91.1	71	65.7	92	85.9	66	70.7	86	86.0	63	61.5	88	87.0	67	67.6
06/27/2025	90	87.6	70	72.8	94	91.1	72	65.7	92	85.9	68	70.7	86	86.0	64	61.5
06/26/2025	85	86.7	66	62.8	88	87.6	70	72.8	94	91.1	72	65.7	94	85.9	68	70.7
06/25/2025	91	91.7	71	69.7	88	86.7	67	62.8	90	87.6	71	72.8	95	91.1	72	65.7
06/24/2025	82	82.2	71	70.4	93	91.7	71	69.7	89	86.7	68	62.8	91	87.6	71	72.8
06/23/2025	87	86.6	69	71.3	86	82.2	71	70.4	93	91.7	71	69.7	90	86.7	68	62.8
06/22/2025	98	95.5	76	79.3	89	86.6	68	71.3	84	82.2	71	70.4	91	91.7	69	69.7
06/21/2025	102	98.9	80	79.8	100	95.5	77	79.3	91	86.6	67	71.3	84	82.2	70	70.4
06/20/2025	101	100.2	80	81.0	102	98.9	79	79.8	101	95.5	76	79.3	89	86.6	66	71.3
06/19/2025	94	92.0	73	74.1	101	100.2	80	81.0	102	98.9	80	79.8	100	95.5	75	79.3
06/18/2025	80	82.0	61	60.0	91	92.0	72	74.1	100	100.2	80	81.0	102	98.9	80	79.8
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	1.3		-0.5		1.8		-0.4		1.6		0.0		2.1		0.1
MAE	2.1		2.2		2.4		2.2		2.5		2.5		2.5		2.4
RMS	2.5		2.5		3.1		2.8		3.1		3.1		3.1		2.9
Goal %	77.4		70.0		66.7		72.4		69.0		60.7		60.7		66.7

Updated every day at 9:03AM CT

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6 AM - 6 PM (recorded at 6:02 PM); lows from 6 PM - 9 AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.

(Auto night: 10:07 PM - 4:54 AM)