Omaha Nebraska Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
05/30/2026	82		64		86		63		85		62		84		62
05/29/2026	76	80.5	62	63.7	80		62		84		63		86		62
05/28/2026	87	85.1	65	67.5	79	80.5	62	63.7	81		63		81		63
05/27/2026	90	87.5	64	63.1	89	85.1	64	67.5	83	80.5	63	63.7	83		62
05/26/2026	89	88.2	61	56.9	88	87.5	64	63.1	87	85.1	63	67.5	83	80.5	61	63.7
05/25/2026	88	87.8	61	61.9	87	88.2	60	56.9	85	87.5	63	63.1	82	85.1	63	67.5
05/24/2026	83	82.9	60	63.5	84	87.8	62	61.9	86	88.2	62	56.9	83	87.5	62	63.1
05/23/2026	76	76.1	52	54.9	84	82.9	59	63.5	87	87.8	62	61.9	85	88.2	61	56.9
05/22/2026	68	71.5	50	48.9	72	76.1	50	54.9	81	82.9	58	63.5	86	87.8	61	61.9
05/21/2026	62	63.5	48	53.9	64	71.5	50	48.9	73	76.1	51	54.9	80	82.9	56	63.5
05/20/2026	62	58.4	45	47.9	60	63.5	48	53.9	62	71.5	49	48.9	71	76.1	51	54.9
05/19/2026	60	59.1	40	39.9	60	58.4	45	47.9	58	63.5	47	53.9	64	71.5	48	48.9
05/18/2026	73	62.7	46	45.0	60	59.1	41	39.9	61	58.4	45	47.9	63	63.5	48	53.9
05/17/2026	90	83.6	58	53.5	77	62.7	47	45.0	61	59.1	42	39.9	63	58.4	47	47.9
05/16/2026	89	86.7	62	61.6	93	83.6	62	53.5	85	62.7	50	45.0	63	59.1	43	39.9
05/15/2026	95	90.8	61	60.7	89	86.7	62	61.6	93	83.6	64	53.5	89	62.7	52	45.0
05/14/2026	84	81.5	59	58.3	94	90.8	60	60.7	88	86.7	60	61.6	89	83.6	65	53.5
05/13/2026	81	79.1	56	57.6	84	81.5	57	58.3	91	90.8	59	60.7	91	86.7	61	61.6
05/12/2026	84	80.8	51	49.5	81	79.1	55	57.6	84	81.5	59	58.3	91	90.8	61	60.7
05/11/2026	85	83.7	61	64.8	84	80.8	50	49.5	82	79.1	55	57.6	87	81.5	64	58.3
05/10/2026	74	74.5	49	47.4	85	83.7	61	64.8	84	80.8	53	49.5	81	79.1	55	57.6
05/09/2026	82	76.4	46	41.3	74	74.5	48	47.4	84	83.7	60	64.8	86	80.8	54	49.5
05/08/2026	77	77.4	49	43.3	81	76.4	48	41.3	72	74.5	47	47.4	82	83.7	58	64.8
05/07/2026	72	72.4	47	49.3	76	77.4	48	43.3	79	76.4	48	41.3	71	74.5	47	47.4
05/06/2026	60	60.4	37	40.6	72	72.4	48	49.3	76	77.4	49	43.3	79	76.4	48	41.3
05/05/2026	61	58.9	41	35.2	59	60.4	39	40.6	71	72.4	49	49.3	74	77.4	47	43.3
05/04/2026	82	81.3	47	45.9	60	58.9	41	35.2	58	60.4	39	40.6	69	72.4	44	49.3
05/03/2026	73	75.4	48	47.1	81	81.3	48	45.9	60	58.9	41	35.2	58	60.4	38	40.6
05/02/2026	67	67.8	49	50.8	73	75.4	46	47.1	80	81.3	47	45.9	59	58.9	41	35.2
05/01/2026	60	58.4	35	31.7	69	67.8	48	50.8	76	75.4	48	47.1	80	81.3	46	45.9
04/30/2026	61	57.8	37	37.1	59	58.4	35	31.7	66	67.8	46	50.8	77	75.4	47	47.1
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	1.4		0.1		0.9		0.1		0.7		0.2		0.7		0.2
MAE	2.3		2.4		2.8		2.7		3.3		3.2		4.0		3.7
RMS	3.2		2.9		4.1		3.4		5.4		4.1		6.2		4.6
Goal %	70.0		66.7		65.5		62.1		78.6		53.6		44.4		44.4

Updated every day at 9:03AM CT

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6 AM - 6 PM (recorded at 6:02 PM); lows from 6 PM - 9 AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.

(Auto night: 10:04 PM - 4:40 AM)