Omaha Nebraska Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
05/17/2026	90	83.6	58		77		47		61		42		63		47
05/16/2026	89	86.7	62	61.6	93	83.6	62		85		50		63		43
05/15/2026	95	90.8	61	60.7	89	86.7	62	61.6	93	83.6	64		89		52
05/14/2026	84	81.5	59	58.3	94	90.8	60	60.7	88	86.7	60	61.6	89	83.6	65
05/13/2026	81	79.1	56	57.6	84	81.5	57	58.3	91	90.8	59	60.7	91	86.7	61	61.6
05/12/2026	84	80.8	51	49.5	81	79.1	55	57.6	84	81.5	59	58.3	91	90.8	61	60.7
05/11/2026	85	83.7	61	64.8	84	80.8	50	49.5	82	79.1	55	57.6	87	81.5	64	58.3
05/10/2026	74	74.5	49	47.4	85	83.7	61	64.8	84	80.8	53	49.5	81	79.1	55	57.6
05/09/2026	82	76.4	46	41.3	74	74.5	48	47.4	84	83.7	60	64.8	86	80.8	54	49.5
05/08/2026	77	77.4	49	43.3	81	76.4	48	41.3	72	74.5	47	47.4	82	83.7	58	64.8
05/07/2026	72	72.4	47	49.3	76	77.4	48	43.3	79	76.4	48	41.3	71	74.5	47	47.4
05/06/2026	60	60.4	37	40.6	72	72.4	48	49.3	76	77.4	49	43.3	79	76.4	48	41.3
05/05/2026	61	58.9	41	35.2	59	60.4	39	40.6	71	72.4	49	49.3	74	77.4	47	43.3
05/04/2026	82	81.3	47	45.9	60	58.9	41	35.2	58	60.4	39	40.6	69	72.4	44	49.3
05/03/2026	73	75.4	48	47.1	81	81.3	48	45.9	60	58.9	41	35.2	58	60.4	38	40.6
05/02/2026	67	67.8	49	50.8	73	75.4	46	47.1	80	81.3	47	45.9	59	58.9	41	35.2
05/01/2026	60	58.4	35	31.7	69	67.8	48	50.8	76	75.4	48	47.1	80	81.3	46	45.9
04/30/2026	61	57.8	37	37.1	59	58.4	35	31.7	66	67.8	46	50.8	77	75.4	47	47.1
04/29/2026	62	62.8	41	43.6	60	57.8	36	37.1	60	58.4	38	31.7	66	67.8	45	50.8
04/28/2026	56	53.6	39	37.3	64	62.8	43	43.6	61	57.8	37	37.1	61	58.4	38	31.7
04/27/2026	63	61.0	41	41.5	55	53.6	39	37.3	62	62.8	42	43.6	64	57.8	39	37.1
04/26/2026	69	69.7	56	59.7	65	61.0	41	41.5	57	53.6	37	37.3	62	62.8	41	43.6
04/25/2026	72	68.6	51	44.8	71	69.7	57	59.7	65	61.0	40	41.5	59	53.6	39	37.3
04/24/2026	67	64.7	44	44.0	68	68.6	51	44.8	71	69.7	55	59.7	65	61.0	41	41.5
04/23/2026	77	80.3	44	42.7	67	64.7	43	44.0	64	68.6	49	44.8	64	69.7	49	59.7
04/22/2026	83	80.1	61	64.2	75	80.3	46	42.7	67	64.7	42	44.0	65	68.6	49	44.8
04/21/2026	85	87.3	56	59.5	83	80.1	61	64.2	78	80.3	45	42.7	65	64.7	43	44.0
04/20/2026	76	81.5	54	55.5	87	87.3	56	59.5	82	80.1	61	64.2	81	80.3	45	42.7
04/19/2026	63	62.6	37	40.9	76	81.5	54	55.5	84	87.3	56	59.5	83	80.1	62	64.2
04/18/2026	57	55.3	35	35.3	63	62.6	38	40.9	74	81.5	54	55.5	82	87.3	57	59.5
04/17/2026	70	73.0	35	30.6	57	55.3	34	35.3	68	62.6	41	40.9	75	81.5	55	55.5
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	1.0		0.2		1.0		0.1		0.6		0.0		0.3		0.0
MAE	2.3		2.4		2.2		2.4		2.6		2.6		3.2		3.2
RMS	2.8		3.0		3.0		2.9		3.3		3.3		3.7		4.2
Goal %	74.2		60.0		76.7		69.0		69.0		60.7		50.0		59.3

Updated every day at 9:03AM CT

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6 AM - 6 PM (recorded at 6:02 PM); lows from 6 PM - 9 AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.

(Auto night: 9:49 PM - 4:52 AM)