Omaha Nebraska Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
11/21/2024	42	39.5	27		47		28		51		36		52		26
11/20/2024	45	46.9	28	24.9	42	39.5	25		43		27		50		36
11/19/2024	51	51.6	32	34.0	45	46.9	27	24.9	40	39.5	24		43		26
11/18/2024	59	61.7	42	42.9	50	51.6	33	34.0	45	46.9	27	24.9	41	39.5	26
11/17/2024	55	53.8	39	38.3	58	61.7	42	42.9	49	51.6	32	34.0	42	46.9	29	24.9
11/16/2024	63	61.2	38	34.3	54	53.8	39	38.3	57	61.7	42	42.9	50	51.6	33	34.0
11/15/2024	60	64.5	44	48.3	62	61.2	39	34.3	54	53.8	38	38.3	56	61.7	42	42.9
11/14/2024	55	57.0	34	31.8	59	64.5	43	48.3	62	61.2	38	34.3	55	53.8	37	38.3
11/13/2024	51	47.4	35	34.4	56	57.0	35	31.8	59	64.5	45	48.3	63	61.2	41	34.3
11/12/2024	55	56.6	45	44.1	53	47.4	35	34.4	57	57.0	36	31.8	60	64.5	44	48.3
11/11/2024	52	52.2	34	36.2	57	56.6	46	44.1	56	47.4	34	34.4	60	57.0	37	31.8
11/10/2024	57	56.6	41	43.4	54	52.2	35	36.2	57	56.6	45	44.1	57	47.4	35	34.4
11/09/2024	55	56.8	42	41.9	56	56.6	40	43.4	57	52.2	38	36.2	60	56.6	44	44.1
11/08/2024	57	54.2	46	47.3	53	56.8	41	41.9	56	56.6	40	43.4	56	52.2	37	36.2
11/07/2024	54	55.6	37	37.3	55	54.2	44	47.3	53	56.8	41	41.9	56	56.6	39	43.4
11/06/2024	53	56.5	39	41.7	53	55.6	36	37.3	54	54.2	43	47.3	53	56.8	41	41.9
11/05/2024	52	50.7	38	35.0	54	56.5	40	41.7	51	55.6	37	37.3	53	54.2	43	47.3
11/04/2024	60	60.3	43	44.8	53	50.7	36	35.0	54	56.5	39	41.7	56	55.6	39	37.3
11/03/2024	67	69.0	55	56.5	60	60.3	42	44.8	55	50.7	37	35.0	55	56.5	40	41.7
11/02/2024	60	56.9	52	50.4	66	69.0	57	56.5	60	60.3	41	44.8	52	50.7	35	35.0
11/01/2024	61	60.5	40	38.2	59	56.9	52	50.4	67	69.0	53	56.5	61	60.3	38	44.8
10/31/2024	53	52.0	36	34.4	59	60.5	39	38.2	60	56.9	52	50.4	65	69.0	56	56.5
10/30/2024	64	58.3	40	39.7	54	52.0	37	34.4	60	60.5	43	38.2	60	56.9	53	50.4
10/29/2024	82	81.9	54	53.4	61	58.3	39	39.7	54	52.0	36	34.4	60	60.5	45	38.2
10/28/2024	78	75.3	67	54.2	84	81.9	57	53.4	66	58.3	37	39.7	54	52.0	36	34.4
10/27/2024	71	71.6	56	58.7	78	75.3	68	54.2	84	81.9	56	53.4	65	58.3	36	39.7
10/26/2024	62	59.5	41	41.5	72	71.6	58	58.7	79	75.3	69	54.2	85	81.9	54	53.4
10/25/2024	64	62.5	36	32.3	62	59.5	42	41.5	72	71.6	58	58.7	81	75.3	67	54.2
10/24/2024	75	72.1	46	43.5	64	62.5	36	32.3	63	59.5	43	41.5	74	71.6	59	58.7
10/23/2024	65	63.3	46	40.5	78	72.1	48	43.5	64	62.5	37	32.3	64	59.5	43	41.5
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	0.4		0.8		0.3		0.8		0.5		0.6		1.0		0.6
MAE	2.0		2.3		2.2		2.5		2.6		2.8		3.1		2.9
RMS	2.3		3.3		2.7		3.6		3.4		3.9		3.7		4.1
Goal %	83.3		79.3		82.8		67.9		60.7		63.0		51.9		61.5

Updated every day at 9:03AM CT

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6 AM - 6 PM (recorded at 6:02 PM); lows from 6 PM - 9 AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.

(Auto night: 6:03 PM - 6:17 AM)