Omaha Nebraska Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
04/05/2026	63		36		48		29		49		41		71		41
04/04/2026	49	47.3	30	33.0	63		35		47		28		49		40
04/03/2026	47	40.3	31	34.0	50	47.3	29	33.0	62		34		50		27
04/02/2026	54	46.3	38	38.0	57	40.3	33	34.0	49	47.3	29	33.0	61		35
04/01/2026	50	47.8	43	42.8	59	46.3	39	38.0	58	40.3	32	34.0	48	47.3	28	33.0
03/31/2026	64	60.3	41	36.2	48	47.8	39	42.8	54	46.3	38	38.0	62	40.3	35	34.0
03/30/2026	88	86.9	54	45.7	64	60.3	38	36.2	46	47.8	35	42.8	48	46.3	33	38.0
03/29/2026	77	75.3	48	45.4	86	86.9	52	45.7	61	60.3	35	36.2	50	47.8	34	42.8
03/28/2026	64	61.0	44	45.7	79	75.3	49	45.4	86	86.9	51	45.7	60	60.3	32	36.2
03/27/2026	54	51.0	30	26.1	62	61.0	44	45.7	76	75.3	48	45.4	84	86.9	58	45.7
03/26/2026	74	68.3	33	27.6	54	51.0	29	26.1	63	61.0	44	45.7	78	75.3	52	45.4
03/25/2026	84	79.9	56	55.9	77	68.3	33	27.6	53	51.0	30	26.1	61	61.0	43	45.7
03/24/2026	66	61.7	45	51.2	86	79.9	58	55.9	77	68.3	32	27.6	53	51.0	28	26.1
03/23/2026	52	48.5	37	33.6	68	61.7	49	51.2	84	79.9	57	55.9	76	68.3	31	27.6
03/22/2026	57	50.6	32	26.5	55	48.5	37	33.6	69	61.7	47	51.2	80	79.9	53	55.9
03/21/2026	93	94.5	50	42.2	59	50.6	35	26.5	59	48.5	41	33.6	69	61.7	47	51.2
03/20/2026	83	85.4	53	45.8	91	94.5	53	42.2	66	50.6	35	26.5	60	48.5	42	33.6
03/19/2026	78	78.2	47	44.9	79	85.4	49	45.8	88	94.5	52	42.2	62	50.6	32	26.5
03/18/2026	71	75.1	40	44.9	73	78.2	47	44.9	81	85.4	51	45.8	87	94.5	47	42.2
03/17/2026	37	32.3	30	26.5	68	75.1	44	44.9	74	78.2	48	44.9	81	85.4	49	45.8
03/16/2026	25	23.1	10	9.4	41	32.3	32	26.5	70	75.1	45	44.9	75	78.2	48	44.9
03/15/2026	39	38.8	5	6.3	25	23.1	9	9.4	44	32.3	35	26.5	68	75.1	43	44.9
03/14/2026	62	59.2	31	32.8	48	38.8	6	6.3	25	23.1	8	9.4	45	32.3	36	26.5
03/13/2026	50	48.5	33	35.2	60	59.2	32	32.8	41	38.8	8	6.3	26	23.1	10	9.4
03/12/2026	68	67.3	36	32.8	50	48.5	34	35.2	61	59.2	31	32.8	40	38.8	10	6.3
03/11/2026	47	45.5	29	26.3	67	67.3	36	32.8	50	48.5	35	35.2	59	59.2	32	32.8
03/10/2026	64	60.1	36	31.1	51	45.5	30	26.3	66	67.3	37	32.8	53	48.5	39	35.2
03/09/2026	74	76.7	42	36.5	64	60.1	36	31.1	50	45.5	30	26.3	66	67.3	39	32.8
03/08/2026	72	73.9	44	49.4	74	76.7	46	36.5	65	60.1	34	31.1	48	45.5	28	26.3
03/07/2026	52	52.1	36	41.1	67	73.9	44	49.4	71	76.7	41	36.5	63	60.1	35	31.1
03/06/2026	67	72.8	31	29.9	52	52.1	37	41.1	68	73.9	46	49.4	68	76.7	41	36.5
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	1.8		1.3		2.7		1.8		2.5		1.8		2.2		1.8
MAE	3.0		3.6		5.0		3.6		5.1		3.7		4.9		4.4
RMS	3.6		4.2		6.3		4.4		6.7		4.6		6.9		5.2
Goal %	60.0		46.7		37.9		44.8		42.9		42.9		55.6		29.6

Updated every day at 9:03AM CT

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6 AM - 6 PM (recorded at 6:02 PM); lows from 6 PM - 9 AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.

(Auto night: 8:55 PM - 5:59 AM)