Omaha Nebraska Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
12/26/2025	52	54.6	39		58		35		36		11		24		14
12/25/2025	49	46.8	40	38.7	59	54.6	40		59		29		34		11
12/24/2025	52	50.4	39	42.5	50	46.8	38	38.7	59	54.6	41		60		23
12/23/2025	53	54.1	35	36.5	56	50.4	35	42.5	53	46.8	39	38.7	59	54.6	39
12/22/2025	57	57.5	37	37.7	53	54.1	35	36.5	55	50.4	38	42.5	62	46.8	35	38.7
12/21/2025	47	48.3	35	34.5	57	57.5	35	37.7	53	54.1	37	36.5	56	50.4	40	42.5
12/20/2025	42	43.4	25	22.4	45	48.3	34	34.5	56	57.5	35	37.7	52	54.1	36	36.5
12/19/2025	44	41.9	34	35.5	45	43.4	23	22.4	43	48.3	33	34.5	54	57.5	35	37.7
12/18/2025	42	41.7	18	13.6	45	41.9	34	35.5	44	43.4	24	22.4	44	48.3	33	34.5
12/17/2025	50	53.8	38	38.5	39	41.7	18	13.6	46	41.9	34	35.5	44	43.4	25	22.4
12/16/2025	51	53.8	27	29.2	51	53.8	36	38.5	40	41.7	16	13.6	46	41.9	33	35.5
12/15/2025	44	44.9	26	24.4	49	53.8	27	29.2	50	53.8	35	38.5	39	41.7	16	13.6
12/14/2025	21	21.3	17	19.3	44	44.9	25	24.4	49	53.8	28	29.2	49	53.8	36	38.5
12/13/2025	15	12.1	1	0.5	21	21.3	17	19.3	44	44.9	26	24.4	50	53.8	29	29.2
12/12/2025	30	29.3	13	10.4	15	12.1	-1	0.5	19	21.3	15	19.3	44	44.9	25	24.4
12/11/2025	42	34.6	24	23.9	31	29.3	11	10.4	15	12.1	-4	0.5	19	21.3	14	19.3
12/10/2025	34	32.5	23	24.7	42	34.6	23	23.9	29	29.3	13	10.4	21	12.1	3	0.5
12/09/2025	49	52.4	28	29.0	35	32.5	24	24.7	37	34.6	20	23.9	29	29.3	10	10.4
12/08/2025	37	33.1	27	25.7	49	52.4	28	29.0	35	32.5	23	24.7	34	34.6	14	23.9
12/07/2025	24	24.8	17	16.7	37	33.1	28	25.7	49	52.4	26	29.0	34	32.5	22	24.7
12/06/2025	36	34.2	14	21.8	19	24.8	12	16.7	35	33.1	26	25.7	46	52.4	26	29.0
12/05/2025	37	42.7	19	19.7	33	34.2	14	21.8	19	24.8	7	16.7	32	33.1	22	25.7
12/04/2025	20	21.4	19	19.9	36	42.7	17	19.7	31	34.2	7	21.8	16	24.8	6	16.7
12/03/2025	31	35.5	-3	1.6	21	21.4	15	19.9	34	42.7	18	19.7	33	34.2	17	21.8
12/02/2025	32	33.9	24	28.1	31	35.5	-5	1.6	20	21.4	12	19.9	33	42.7	19	19.7
12/01/2025	23	23.1	7	10.5	32	33.9	23	28.1	32	35.5	-8	1.6	17	21.4	12	19.9
11/30/2025	20	21.5	12	17.9	23	23.1	6	10.5	31	33.9	23	28.1	31	35.5	-4	1.6
11/29/2025	30	27.2	12	13.5	20	21.5	11	17.9	22	23.1	5	10.5	27	33.9	20	28.1
11/28/2025	31	27.5	27	24.8	30	27.2	12	13.5	19	21.5	10	17.9	22	23.1	11	10.5
11/27/2025	38	37.6	21	16.5	33	27.5	29	24.8	29	27.2	11	13.5	18	21.5	7	17.9
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-0.1		-0.8		0.1		-2.1		-0.8		-3.2		-1.2		-3.1
MAE	2.2		2.3		3.0		3.0		3.1		3.9		4.2		3.8
RMS	2.7		2.9		3.6		3.7		3.6		5.2		5.4		4.9
Goal %	76.7		72.4		55.2		64.3		57.1		55.6		40.7		61.5

Updated every day at 9:03AM CT

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6 AM - 6 PM (recorded at 6:02 PM); lows from 6 PM - 9 AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.

(Auto night: 6:08 PM - 6:43 AM)