Omaha Nebraska Forecast Accuracy
Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures
Goal: +/- 3°F | Forecast Day | +1 Day | +2 Day | +3 Day | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | |||||||||
Date | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act |
06/12/2025 | 90 | 85.2 | 63 | 90 | 68 | 91 | 69 | 90 | 69 | |||||||
06/11/2025 | 95 | 94.4 | 66 | 62.9 | 89 | 85.2 | 68 | 87 | 64 | 86 | 66 | |||||
06/10/2025 | 88 | 89.0 | 64 | 64.9 | 94 | 94.4 | 68 | 62.9 | 87 | 85.2 | 67 | 85 | 66 | |||
06/09/2025 | 75 | 71.0 | 54 | 51.4 | 87 | 89.0 | 63 | 64.9 | 94 | 94.4 | 67 | 62.9 | 87 | 85.2 | 66 | |
06/08/2025 | 72 | 67.8 | 54 | 55.6 | 76 | 71.0 | 54 | 51.4 | 85 | 89.0 | 62 | 64.9 | 92 | 94.4 | 67 | 62.9 |
06/07/2025 | 78 | 79.9 | 61 | 64.7 | 75 | 67.8 | 55 | 55.6 | 76 | 71.0 | 53 | 51.4 | 83 | 89.0 | 59 | 64.9 |
06/06/2025 | 76 | 78.0 | 60 | 62.8 | 79 | 79.9 | 60 | 64.7 | 77 | 67.8 | 56 | 55.6 | 76 | 71.0 | 52 | 51.4 |
06/05/2025 | 74 | 72.4 | 58 | 59.0 | 76 | 78.0 | 59 | 62.8 | 80 | 79.9 | 60 | 64.7 | 79 | 67.8 | 56 | 55.6 |
06/04/2025 | 77 | 77.4 | 55 | 54.4 | 74 | 72.4 | 59 | 59.0 | 76 | 78.0 | 55 | 62.8 | 82 | 79.9 | 60 | 64.7 |
06/03/2025 | 63 | 67.2 | 51 | 49.5 | 76 | 77.4 | 57 | 54.4 | 73 | 72.4 | 57 | 59.0 | 74 | 78.0 | 57 | 62.8 |
06/02/2025 | 90 | 90.4 | 59 | 57.0 | 61 | 67.2 | 51 | 49.5 | 76 | 77.4 | 55 | 54.4 | 74 | 72.4 | 58 | 59.0 |
06/01/2025 | 89 | 87.5 | 61 | 63.3 | 90 | 90.4 | 60 | 57.0 | 66 | 67.2 | 52 | 49.5 | 73 | 77.4 | 55 | 54.4 |
05/31/2025 | 85 | 86.9 | 58 | 58.0 | 88 | 87.5 | 64 | 63.3 | 91 | 90.4 | 65 | 57.0 | 72 | 67.2 | 53 | 49.5 |
05/30/2025 | 80 | 78.6 | 56 | 57.5 | 87 | 86.9 | 59 | 58.0 | 89 | 87.5 | 64 | 63.3 | 91 | 90.4 | 67 | 57.0 |
05/29/2025 | 71 | 73.0 | 50 | 50.7 | 80 | 78.6 | 56 | 57.5 | 87 | 86.9 | 59 | 58.0 | 88 | 87.5 | 62 | 63.3 |
05/28/2025 | 69 | 68.7 | 51 | 50.1 | 71 | 73.0 | 50 | 50.7 | 80 | 78.6 | 56 | 57.5 | 84 | 86.9 | 59 | 58.0 |
05/27/2025 | 61 | 61.0 | 50 | 50.4 | 69 | 68.7 | 50 | 50.1 | 74 | 73.0 | 51 | 50.7 | 81 | 78.6 | 58 | 57.5 |
05/26/2025 | 67 | 66.3 | 52 | 52.6 | 62 | 61.0 | 47 | 50.4 | 69 | 68.7 | 48 | 50.1 | 73 | 73.0 | 52 | 50.7 |
05/25/2025 | 66 | 69.3 | 51 | 55.5 | 64 | 66.3 | 50 | 52.6 | 62 | 61.0 | 47 | 50.4 | 68 | 68.7 | 49 | 50.1 |
05/24/2025 | 66 | 70.3 | 53 | 53.2 | 66 | 69.3 | 51 | 55.5 | 61 | 66.3 | 50 | 52.6 | 65 | 61.0 | 49 | 50.4 |
05/23/2025 | 64 | 66.2 | 51 | 52.3 | 69 | 70.3 | 52 | 53.2 | 65 | 69.3 | 50 | 55.5 | 61 | 66.3 | 49 | 52.6 |
05/22/2025 | 64 | 66.0 | 44 | 44.1 | 62 | 66.2 | 50 | 52.3 | 69 | 70.3 | 52 | 53.2 | 63 | 69.3 | 49 | 55.5 |
05/21/2025 | 68 | 67.1 | 43 | 44.4 | 66 | 66.0 | 44 | 44.1 | 65 | 66.2 | 51 | 52.3 | 66 | 70.3 | 52 | 53.2 |
05/20/2025 | 61 | 57.6 | 43 | 45.1 | 62 | 67.1 | 43 | 44.4 | 66 | 66.0 | 44 | 44.1 | 65 | 66.2 | 50 | 52.3 |
05/19/2025 | 70 | 69.6 | 51 | 51.5 | 62 | 57.6 | 44 | 45.1 | 62 | 67.1 | 42 | 44.4 | 66 | 66.0 | 45 | 44.1 |
05/18/2025 | 77 | 78.7 | 58 | 55.4 | 73 | 69.6 | 54 | 51.5 | 64 | 57.6 | 44 | 45.1 | 59 | 67.1 | 43 | 44.4 |
05/17/2025 | 72 | 72.1 | 46 | 43.3 | 75 | 78.7 | 58 | 55.4 | 71 | 69.6 | 53 | 51.5 | 60 | 57.6 | 43 | 45.1 |
05/16/2025 | 72 | 70.9 | 48 | 49.7 | 73 | 72.1 | 47 | 43.3 | 76 | 78.7 | 59 | 55.4 | 75 | 69.6 | 52 | 51.5 |
05/15/2025 | 80 | 78.0 | 56 | 59.3 | 76 | 70.9 | 49 | 49.7 | 75 | 72.1 | 50 | 43.3 | 78 | 78.7 | 59 | 55.4 |
05/14/2025 | 89 | 87.7 | 64 | 63.1 | 81 | 78.0 | 56 | 59.3 | 78 | 70.9 | 50 | 49.7 | 75 | 72.1 | 50 | 43.3 |
05/13/2025 | 88 | 86.9 | 62 | 60.1 | 90 | 87.7 | 63 | 63.1 | 79 | 78.0 | 56 | 59.3 | 77 | 70.9 | 52 | 49.7 |
Errors | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act |
Net | 0.1 | -0.4 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.2 | -0.1 | ||||||||
MAE | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.8 | ||||||||
RMS | 2.3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 3.7 | ||||||||
Goal % | 77.4 | 86.7 | 63.3 | 75.9 | 72.4 | 67.9 | 53.6 | 63.0 |
Updated every day at 9:03AM CT
NOTES:
- Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
- Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
- MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
- Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
- In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
- Highs are measured from 6 AM - 6 PM (recorded at 6:02 PM); lows from 6 PM - 9 AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
- Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
(Auto night: 10:14 PM - 4:34 AM)