Omaha Nebraska Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
04/03/2025	57	55.0	41		54		34		49		28		59		29
04/02/2025	59	53.5	34	34.1	58	55.0	41		54		37		48		28
04/01/2025	58	51.8	47	44.0	62	53.5	33	34.1	57	55.0	39		57		39
03/31/2025	53	53.1	38	40.1	62	51.8	47	44.0	62	53.5	34	34.1	56	55.0	37
03/30/2025	45	39.4	33	34.5	52	53.1	38	40.1	60	51.8	46	44.0	61	53.5	33	34.1
03/29/2025	65	50.0	36	34.1	45	39.4	31	34.5	51	53.1	38	40.1	61	51.8	45	44.0
03/28/2025	84	81.5	52	48.9	64	50.0	35	34.1	44	39.4	31	34.5	51	53.1	34	40.1
03/27/2025	78	78.9	59	59.6	82	81.5	54	48.9	64	50.0	35	34.1	45	39.4	30	34.5
03/26/2025	67	66.0	47	48.6	75	78.9	58	59.6	80	81.5	55	48.9	64	50.0	36	34.1
03/25/2025	64	61.1	36	31.3	64	66.0	46	48.6	78	78.9	59	59.6	81	81.5	56	48.9
03/24/2025	60	62.3	38	37.5	66	61.1	35	31.3	64	66.0	47	48.6	74	78.9	56	59.6
03/23/2025	59	57.6	34	31.0	62	62.3	40	37.5	68	61.1	37	31.3	65	66.0	46	48.6
03/22/2025	63	65.6	42	46.2	57	57.6	33	31.0	61	62.3	41	37.5	64	61.1	38	31.3
03/21/2025	52	55.7	29	26.7	62	65.6	40	46.2	58	57.6	33	31.0	59	62.3	39	37.5
03/20/2025	39	47.4	33	39.7	50	55.7	28	26.7	61	65.6	41	46.2	56	57.6	32	31.0
03/19/2025	35	34.7	21	22.9	42	47.4	36	39.7	51	55.7	28	26.7	61	65.6	41	46.2
03/18/2025	75	72.3	31	32.4	36	34.7	22	22.9	48	47.4	39	39.7	57	55.7	31	26.7
03/17/2025	82	82.9	43	44.4	75	72.3	32	32.4	38	34.7	24	22.9	51	47.4	39	39.7
03/16/2025	54	51.9	39	37.8	78	82.9	46	44.4	74	72.3	31	32.4	45	34.7	27	22.9
03/15/2025	47	42.2	26	23.7	55	51.9	39	37.8	76	82.9	47	44.4	72	72.3	30	32.4
03/14/2025	76	73.8	36	33.4	45	42.2	26	23.7	57	51.9	42	37.8	77	82.9	49	44.4
03/13/2025	78	77.3	52	56.3	75	73.8	38	33.4	47	42.2	27	23.7	55	51.9	38	37.8
03/12/2025	70	70.3	39	35.3	76	77.3	55	56.3	73	73.8	36	33.4	46	42.2	26	23.7
03/11/2025	58	56.9	36	29.7	70	70.3	41	35.3	74	77.3	55	56.3	75	73.8	35	33.4
03/10/2025	79	81.1	36	33.7	57	56.9	36	29.7	69	70.3	41	35.3	74	77.3	54	56.3
03/09/2025	67	66.9	33	33.7	77	81.1	35	33.7	54	56.9	35	29.7	66	70.3	40	35.3
03/08/2025	54	55.7	26	24.8	64	66.9	35	33.7	75	81.1	37	33.7	56	56.9	34	29.7
03/07/2025	38	40.1	23	20.5	46	55.7	27	24.8	60	66.9	33	33.7	72	81.1	41	33.7
03/06/2025	44	43.1	32	35.5	37	40.1	21	20.5	46	55.7	27	24.8	56	66.9	34	33.7
03/05/2025	34	33.7	20	20.1	44	43.1	31	35.5	36	40.1	23	20.5	49	55.7	28	24.8
03/04/2025	57	56.6	24	20.5	36	33.7	20	20.1	43	43.1	30	35.5	39	40.1	24	20.5
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	1.1		0.5		0.4		0.6		0.0		1.1		0.1		1.2
MAE	2.7		2.5		3.7		2.5		4.1		2.8		4.4		3.3
RMS	4.0		3.0		4.9		3.1		5.2		3.3		5.7		3.9
Goal %	77.4		70.0		53.3		69.0		44.8		60.7		39.3		48.1

Updated every day at 9:03AM CT

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6 AM - 6 PM (recorded at 6:02 PM); lows from 6 PM - 9 AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.

(Auto night: 8:53 PM - 6:02 AM)