Omaha Nebraska Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
06/01/2025	89		61		90		60		66		52		73		55
05/31/2025	85	86.9	58	58.0	88		64		91		65		72		53
05/30/2025	80	78.6	56	57.5	87	86.9	59	58.0	89		64		91		67
05/29/2025	71	73.0	50	50.7	80	78.6	56	57.5	87	86.9	59	58.0	88		62
05/28/2025	69	68.7	51	50.1	71	73.0	50	50.7	80	78.6	56	57.5	84	86.9	59	58.0
05/27/2025	61	61.0	50	50.4	69	68.7	50	50.1	74	73.0	51	50.7	81	78.6	58	57.5
05/26/2025	67	66.3	52	52.6	62	61.0	47	50.4	69	68.7	48	50.1	73	73.0	52	50.7
05/25/2025	66	69.3	51	55.5	64	66.3	50	52.6	62	61.0	47	50.4	68	68.7	49	50.1
05/24/2025	66	70.3	53	53.2	66	69.3	51	55.5	61	66.3	50	52.6	65	61.0	49	50.4
05/23/2025	64	66.2	51	52.3	69	70.3	52	53.2	65	69.3	50	55.5	61	66.3	49	52.6
05/22/2025	64	66.0	44	44.1	62	66.2	50	52.3	69	70.3	52	53.2	63	69.3	49	55.5
05/21/2025	68	67.1	43	44.4	66	66.0	44	44.1	65	66.2	51	52.3	66	70.3	52	53.2
05/20/2025	61	57.6	43	45.1	62	67.1	43	44.4	66	66.0	44	44.1	65	66.2	50	52.3
05/19/2025	70	69.6	51	51.5	62	57.6	44	45.1	62	67.1	42	44.4	66	66.0	45	44.1
05/18/2025	77	78.7	58	55.4	73	69.6	54	51.5	64	57.6	44	45.1	59	67.1	43	44.4
05/17/2025	72	72.1	46	43.3	75	78.7	58	55.4	71	69.6	53	51.5	60	57.6	43	45.1
05/16/2025	72	70.9	48	49.7	73	72.1	47	43.3	76	78.7	59	55.4	75	69.6	52	51.5
05/15/2025	80	78.0	56	59.3	76	70.9	49	49.7	75	72.1	50	43.3	78	78.7	59	55.4
05/14/2025	89	87.7	64	63.1	81	78.0	56	59.3	78	70.9	50	49.7	75	72.1	50	43.3
05/13/2025	88	86.9	62	60.1	90	87.7	63	63.1	79	78.0	56	59.3	77	70.9	52	49.7
05/12/2025	86	85.4	57	54.9	88	86.9	62	60.1	90	87.7	60	63.1	79	78.0	54	59.3
05/11/2025	88	87.1	56	54.3	87	85.4	58	54.9	88	86.9	63	60.1	90	87.7	62	63.1
05/10/2025	86	88.8	55	56.1	86	87.1	56	54.3	84	85.4	58	54.9	87	86.9	62	60.1
05/09/2025	82	83.7	55	51.7	86	88.8	57	56.1	86	87.1	58	54.3	84	85.4	59	54.9
05/08/2025	77	79.6	49	47.9	81	83.7	52	51.7	85	88.8	55	56.1	83	87.1	56	54.3
05/07/2025	75	79.2	54	56.3	76	79.6	48	47.9	78	83.7	49	51.7	81	88.8	52	56.1
05/06/2025	78	78.4	54	55.6	75	79.2	53	56.3	75	79.6	49	47.9	78	83.7	54	51.7
05/05/2025	76	80.1	49	52.6	77	78.4	55	55.6	73	79.2	54	56.3	75	79.6	52	47.9
05/04/2025	74	75.6	48	46.0	76	80.1	49	52.6	78	78.4	55	55.6	73	79.2	52	56.3
05/03/2025	67	68.1	43	39.9	72	75.6	46	46.0	75	80.1	48	52.6	76	78.4	53	55.6
05/02/2025	61	62.8	39	37.5	67	68.1	42	39.9	72	75.6	45	46.0	73	80.1	49	52.6
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-0.8		-0.1		-0.8		-0.4		-0.9		-0.6		-1.6		-0.4
MAE	1.7		1.7		2.5		1.7		2.8		2.3		3.5		2.6
RMS	2.1		2.0		2.9		2.2		3.5		2.8		4.3		3.2
Goal %	83.3		83.3		62.1		75.9		60.7		67.9		51.9		63.0

Updated every day at 9:03AM CT

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6 AM - 6 PM (recorded at 6:02 PM); lows from 6 PM - 9 AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.

(Auto night: 10:06 PM - 4:38 AM)